{"id":105775,"date":"2022-08-13T10:56:09","date_gmt":"2022-08-13T15:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/?p=105775"},"modified":"2022-08-13T11:24:47","modified_gmt":"2022-08-13T16:24:47","slug":"megaflood-coming-for-california-scientists-warn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/2022\/08\/megaflood-coming-for-california-scientists-warn.html","title":{"rendered":"A Disaster \u201cLarger Than Any in World History\u201d is Coming for California, Scientists Warn"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A &#8216;megadrought&#8217; may currently be the most significant hazard across California at the moment amid&nbsp;the ongoing risk of earthquakes and wildfires. However in a new study, UCLA scientists <a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.abq0995\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">warn<\/a> that another more serious catastrophe\u2014dubbed a &#8216;megaflood&#8217;\u2014is on the horizon for California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to an alarming study published on Friday (August 12) in the peer-reviewed journal Science Advances, climate change is dramatically <a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.ucla.edu\/releases\/climate-change-makes-catastrophic-flood-twice-as-likely\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">increasing<\/a> the likelihood of a megaflood across the state of California in the future, which would likely result in\u00a0multiple cities under water and millions of displaced people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Special Weather West report on new research into the rising risk of a California <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/megaflood?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#megaflood<\/a> in a warming climate, based on a new paper out today published by @xingyhuang and me. Detailed thread to follow. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/CAwx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#CAwx<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/CAflood?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#CAflood<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ClimateChange?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#ClimateChange<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/ARkStorm2?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">#ARkStorm2<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/P0tajwHteX\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/t.co\/P0tajwHteX<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Dr. Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Weather_West\/status\/1558158780830867456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">August 12, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Their research found that a severe storm lasting for an entire month could bring feet of rain to hundreds of miles of California\u2014with some areas receiving <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/climate-environment\/2022\/08\/12\/megaflood-california-flood-rain-climate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">more than 100 inches of rain<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The loop below, which displays the movement of water vapor and the probable buildup of precipitation at selected time slices during the course of the 30-day scenario, was developed by Xingying Huang, one of the authors of the study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-embed-handler wp-block-embed-embed-handler\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div style=\"width: 640px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('video');<\/script><![endif]-->\n<video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-105775-1\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"https:\/\/dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com\/cnn\/animations\/w_1100,ac_none\/220812115123-mobapp-megaflood-model-water-vapor-animation.mp4?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com\/cnn\/animations\/w_1100,ac_none\/220812115123-mobapp-megaflood-model-water-vapor-animation.mp4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com\/cnn\/animations\/w_1100,ac_none\/220812115123-mobapp-megaflood-model-water-vapor-animation.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The inevitable disaster is being referred to as California&#8217;s <em>&#8220;second Big One&#8221;<\/em>\u2014a reference to the catastrophic earthquake expected to strike the state any day now\u2014but this new analysis found that the losses caused by a megaflood would outweigh those caused by the major earthquake <em>&#8220;by a wide margin.&#8221;<\/em><\/p><div class=\"themi-content_11\" id=\"themi-3225185832\"><div id=\"ld-8755-6417\"><\/div><script>(function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:9217690065945446,size:[0, 0],id:\"ld-8755-6417\"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src=\"https:\/\/cdn2.decide.dev\/_js\/ajs.js\";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,\"script\",\"ld-ajs\");<\/script><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the findings of the study, the likelihood of a future megaflood as well as their severity are both significantly increased with each degree of heat caused by global warming.<\/p><div class=\"themi-content_15\" id=\"themi-2222772836\"><a href=\"https:\/\/mailchi.mp\/themindunleashed\/subscribe\" aria-label=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Brown-and-White-Modern-Digital-Marketing-Course-Promo-Instagram-Post-1920-x-1080-px.png\" alt=\"\"  srcset=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Brown-and-White-Modern-Digital-Marketing-Course-Promo-Instagram-Post-1920-x-1080-px.png 1920w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Brown-and-White-Modern-Digital-Marketing-Course-Promo-Instagram-Post-1920-x-1080-px-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Brown-and-White-Modern-Digital-Marketing-Course-Promo-Instagram-Post-1920-x-1080-px-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Brown-and-White-Modern-Digital-Marketing-Course-Promo-Instagram-Post-1920-x-1080-px-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Brown-and-White-Modern-Digital-Marketing-Course-Promo-Instagram-Post-1920-x-1080-px-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Brown-and-White-Modern-Digital-Marketing-Course-Promo-Instagram-Post-1920-x-1080-px-150x84.png 150w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Brown-and-White-Modern-Digital-Marketing-Course-Promo-Instagram-Post-1920-x-1080-px-696x392.png 696w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Brown-and-White-Modern-Digital-Marketing-Course-Promo-Instagram-Post-1920-x-1080-px-1068x601.png 1068w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\"   \/><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, the scientists concluded that such catastrophic floods are&nbsp;now <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2022\/aug\/12\/california-climate-crisis-megafloods\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">twice as likely to occur<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-05-at-12.34.23-PM.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-105797\" srcset=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-05-at-12.34.23-PM.png 1024w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-05-at-12.34.23-PM-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-05-at-12.34.23-PM-768x450.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>The risk of a California megastorm event increases approximately linearly with global warming. Climate change to date has already doubled the risk relative to a century ago.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Dr. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA and co-author of the study, said in a news release that in a future scenario where a megaflood occurs on a hotter planet Earth, <em>\u201cthe storm sequence is bigger in almost every respect.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cThere\u2019s more rain overall, more intense rainfall on an hourly basis and stronger wind,&#8221; <\/em>Swain added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">JUST IN: A harrowing new study finds that the risk of a terrible flood in California, even worse than the Great Flood of 1862 when storms kept arriving for 43 days, has intensified amid global warming, sprawling development and wildfires. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/B2mvJNYAC2\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/t.co\/B2mvJNYAC2<\/a><\/p>&mdash; San Francisco Chronicle (@sfchronicle) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sfchronicle\/status\/1558152734456569867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">August 12, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Swain, statewide floods affecting all of California like this have occurred around once per century or two over the course of the last thousand years. He believes the present risk of such a catastrophic disaster has been grossly underestimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cSocietally, from a public policy and climate adaptation infrastructure building perspective we are falling behind,\u201d<\/em> warned Dr. Swain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cOur goal in doing this work is to get ahead of the curve as much as we can when it comes to the risk of megaflood,\u201d <\/em>he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p><em>\u201cWe know that eventually it will happen and that climate change is upping the odds.\u201d<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The Great Flood of 1862 in California happened before global warming was a thing, measuring up to 300 miles long and 60 miles across. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/K_Street_Inundation_of_the_State_Capitol_City_of_Sacramento_1862-1024x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-105790\" srcset=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/K_Street_Inundation_of_the_State_Capitol_City_of_Sacramento_1862.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/K_Street_Inundation_of_the_State_Capitol_City_of_Sacramento_1862-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/K_Street_Inundation_of_the_State_Capitol_City_of_Sacramento_1862-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/K_Street_Inundation_of_the_State_Capitol_City_of_Sacramento_1862-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/K_Street_Inundation_of_the_State_Capitol_City_of_Sacramento_1862-80x80.jpg 80w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Lithograph depicting deep inundation in Sacramento during the Great Flood of 1862, which turned much of the Central Valley into a temporary inland sea.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the same storm in 2022 would\u2014according to the study\u2014uproot 5\u201310 million people, cut off the state&#8217;s main roadways for months with significant economic repercussions, and submerge a significant number of major Central Valley cities, in addition to portions of Los Angeles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"567\" src=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/ca-map_1300-1-1024x567.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-105804\" srcset=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/ca-map_1300-1-1024x567.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/ca-map_1300-1-300x166.jpg 300w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/ca-map_1300-1-768x425.jpg 768w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/ca-map_1300-1.jpg 1300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Overview of the ARkStorm Scenario<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The research is an expansion of the &#8220;ArkStorm scenario&#8221; that was published in 2010, which got its name from the atmospheric rivers that would fuel the severe storm, resulting in&nbsp;mass flooding of biblical proportions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This new study is only the first stage of an initiative referred to as ArkStorm 2.0, which aims to revisit that scenario further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the research conducted at UCLA, a catastrophic flood on the scale of the one that occurred in 1862 would result in a loss of at least one trillion dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>&#8220;Parts of cities such as Sacramento, Stockton, Fresno and Los Angeles would be under water even with today\u2019s extensive collection of reservoirs, levees and bypasses. It is estimated that it would be a $1 trillion disaster, larger than any in world history,&#8221; <\/em>the news release said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Swain noted in the release that many Californians have forgotten about the severe flooding threat because of the attention that has been paid to the drought and the wildfires. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cThere is potential for bad wildfires every year in California, but a lot of years go by when there\u2019s no major flood news. People forget about it,\u201d <\/em>Swain explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The scientists&nbsp;used both new high-resolution weather models and existing climate models to compare two extreme situations: one that would occur approximately once every century in the recent historical climate, and another that would occur in the projected climate of 2081-2100. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both scenarios were analyzed using state-of-the-art computer modeling software.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"278\" src=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-09-at-2.56.38-PM.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-105799\" srcset=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-09-at-2.56.38-PM.png 1024w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-09-at-2.56.38-PM-300x81.png 300w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-09-at-2.56.38-PM-768x209.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Comparison of composite atmospheric river intensity during ARkHist (left) and ARkFuture (right).<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"526\" src=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-03-at-10.55.03-AM.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-105795\" srcset=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-03-at-10.55.03-AM.png 1024w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-03-at-10.55.03-AM-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-03-at-10.55.03-AM-768x395.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>30-day cumulative simulated precipitation during ARkHist and ARkFuture scenarios.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"617\" src=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-03-at-10.44.16-AM.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-105796\" srcset=\"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-03-at-10.44.16-AM.png 1024w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-03-at-10.44.16-AM-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-03-at-10.44.16-AM-768x463.png 768w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-03-at-10.44.16-AM-590x354.png 590w, https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Screen-Shot-2022-08-03-at-10.44.16-AM-400x240.png 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>ARkFuture and ARkHist cumulative precipitation time series (statewide California average) compared to the most extreme events observed historically (since 1951).<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Each of these scenarios featured a serious of storms that were fed by atmospheric rivers over the period of one month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ribbons of water vapor make up atmospheric rivers, which can be found stretching across thousands of miles from the tropics to the western United States. They are responsible for providing the fuel for the enormous rain and snowstorms that can bring floods throughout the West Coast. Their width ranges from 250 to 375 miles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), these kind of occurrences\u2014despite being beneficial for water supplies\u2014can wreak havoc on transportation, bring about lethal mudslides, and cause devastating damage to both life and property.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Numerous studies now suggest the effects of climate change will cause atmospheric rivers to become hotter, more powerful, and more frequent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cNobody could possibly argue we didn\u2019t see this coming if and when it hits,\u201d <\/em>Swain said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cThere\u2019s still potentially time to do something about it before things go haywire.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"themi-after-content_2\" id=\"themi-2482176456\"><div data-type=\"_mgwidget\" data-widget-id=\"1747048\"> \r\n <\/div> \r\n <script>(function(w,q){w[q]=w[q]||[];w[q].push([\"_mgc.load\"])})(window,\"_mgq\"); \r\n <\/script> \r\n <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s happened before. It will happen again. But this time it&#8217;ll be much worse.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46437,"featured_media":105807,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2823],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-105775","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/46437"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105775"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105775\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":105814,"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105775\/revisions\/105814"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/themindunleashed.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}