According to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), as of last week, the asteroid has a 2.3% chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032. That figure nearly doubled from an earlier 1.2% estimate in late January, though scientists emphasize that as more data is gathered, the probability may continue to shift.

Despite the growing attention, NASA notes that no other currently known large asteroids have an impact probability exceeding 1%, making 2024 YR4 an unusual case for ongoing observation.

How Big Is 2024 YR4, and What Would an Impact Look Like?

NASA estimates that 2024 YR4 measures between 130 and 300 feet across, roughly the size of a football field. If it were to enter Earth’s atmosphere, it would be traveling at a high velocity of approximately 38,000 mph.

While an asteroid of this size would not pose a threat to the entire planet, it could cause significant localized damage upon impact. Smaller asteroids, particularly those that break apart in the atmosphere, typically cause regional effects rather than global catastrophes. In comparison, an asteroid several miles wide would be needed to trigger planet-wide destruction, similar to the event that contributed to the extinction of the dinosaurs.

NASA and its affiliated researchers continue to monitor 2024 YR4’s trajectory, and while it is expected that further analysis will lower its impact probability, scientists acknowledge the possibility that calculations could slightly increase before more data confirms a safe passage.

Discovery and Ongoing Observations

The Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile first detected 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024. Since its discovery, the asteroid has been closely observed using ground-based telescopes to refine its trajectory and physical characteristics.

NASA scientists estimate that ground-based observatories will be able to track 2024 YR4 through April 2025. However, by mid-year, the asteroid will become too faint for further observation until June 2028, when it will once again become visible.

To gather more precise data, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is scheduled to focus on 2024 YR4 in March, allowing astronomers to gain a better understanding of its size, composition, and potential risk factors.

What’s Next?

As additional observations are made, NASA expects to refine the asteroid’s impact probability, most likely reducing the current 2.3% chance as trajectory models improve. The agency also emphasizes that even if an impact were confirmed in the future, planetary defense strategies exist to mitigate the threat, such as diverting an asteroid’s path through space missions like the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which successfully altered an asteroid’s motion in 2022.

For now, scientists remain cautious but not alarmed, emphasizing that 2024 YR4 is still unlikely to pose a serious threat to Earth. The next few months of study will help clarify whether this asteroid is simply another harmless passerby or one that requires further mitigation planning.